Implications of the U.S.-China Trade War for China’s Economy and Property Markets, as Perturbed by the World Trade Organization
China has complained to the World Trade Organization about the trade war. Li Chenggang is a former assistant commerce minister and China’s WTO ambassador.
“While China’s retaliatory tariffs may push up prices of some imports, the U.S. tariffs would reduce China’s external demand sharply and add downward pressures to domestic prices in China,” UBS wrote in a research note.
On Monday, UBS downgraded China’s 2025 growth forecast to 3.4%, assuming current tariff hikes remain and China rolls out additional stimulus, noting high margins of error due to uncertainty surrounding the tariffs.
He added that the rapidly worsening U.S.-China trade war “might also deal a further blow to the still-struggling property sector, including property markets in tier-one cities, which have been showing some signs of stabilization.”
China’s economy grew in the first quarter of the year, well above expectations, even as the Trump administration prepared to impose steep new tariffs.
The Trump administration imposed tariffs on Chinese imports. President Trump also talked up his upcoming “reciprocal tariffs,” which were unveiled in early April.
China’s growth in the first three months of the 2009-present-day presidential election: a probe of its relationship with the US and the European Union
The growth in the first three months was driven in part by strong industrial activity and exports. The government said policies to stimulate domestic demand also helped boost growth.
The growth of the GDP in the period was 5.3% compared to the same period last year. The poll had predicted growth of 5.1%.
China’s exports to the United States have not increased as much as their exports to the European Union, but that has not stopped Beijing from trying to reduce its dependence on the US. China has reduced its reliance on trade, with exports decreasing as a percentage of GDP over the last five years according to World Bank data.
